Do Georgians have savings? Are they happy with the quality of healthcare? How does Georgian public perceive the performance of government and political parties? Is the approval for EU and NATO membership as strong as it used to be?
19.09.2019 (Caucasian Journal) For the most up-to-date answers to key social and political questions, Caucasian Journal traditionally turns to Laura THORNTON, Global Associate/Senior Director at National Democratic Institute (NDI) in Georgia. Today Laura kindly agreed to comment on NDI's latest public opinion polls exclusively for readers of CJ.
(Read the Georgian translation here.)
19.09.2019 (Caucasian Journal) For the most up-to-date answers to key social and political questions, Caucasian Journal traditionally turns to Laura THORNTON, Global Associate/Senior Director at National Democratic Institute (NDI) in Georgia. Today Laura kindly agreed to comment on NDI's latest public opinion polls exclusively for readers of CJ.
(Read the Georgian translation here.)
Alexander KAFFKA, editor-in-chief of CJ: Dear Laura, welcome back to Caucasian Journal. A lot has happened in Georgia since our last conversation six months ago (read here). And as always, your organization has the latest information on public sentiments regarding the most burning social and political issues. With great interest I have reviewed NDI's latest public polls results, and I do recommend to our readers to review your original charts and tables. But as always with statistical data, their interpretation is critically important. What's your general impression of the latest changes in Georgian public attitudes - could you summarize it?
Laura THORNTON: Thank you very much for having me back! NDI and our partner CRRC are proud to have the most transparent polls in Georgia, so you can find all of our data at https://caucasusbarometer.org/en/datasets/. You can download the full questionnaire, do your own cross-tabulations, generate tables and graphs, etc. We really do hold the view that opinion research – particularly since there is not a lot being done here – is a public good, and we love to see a wide array of people put our data to use.
Overall, I think this NDI-CRRC poll has shown some things have indeed shifted in public opinion, though, frankly, much stays the same. The NATO and EU figures remain stable and consistent with our last few polls. For years now, Georgians indicate that they are un-impressed with their political options and while planning to vote, have no idea for whom. Certain institutions, like the church and public service halls, continue to have the public’s positive assessment. This poll has also shown us that Georgians positively assess the quality and accessibility of healthcare, approve of universal health care, and trust doctors and clinics.
With regard to changes,
rather than focusing too much on a specific data point in one poll, it is
important to look at trends over time. One trend we’ve been seeing is that Georgians increasingly believe the country is moving in the wrong direction, the state of the economy is poor, and the government’s performance is worsening.
AK: Indeed, your poll results reflect a growing public criticism towards
the government. So, before we proceed to details of your poll's
results, a more general question: Who are the typical users of your
data? I believe they are a priceless resource for the opposition parties
and journalists, who use such data to support political rhetoric. But are
there cases of any government bodies' practical interest in your
figures? Or perhaps the parliament has used them to change legislation?
LT: NDI is fortunate to work with
many partners on our research program. In fact, given the economy and
healthcare focus of this poll, we relied a lot on our partners to help design
our instrument and come up with the right questions. We work closely with MPs,
factions, and committees in parliament, as you suggest, to use the poll to test
a policy or idea for legislation. Our research on sexual harassment (read more here), for
example, helped inform legislation on that issue. And the healthcare committee
was particularly keen on this poll to inform their planned interventions on
medicine costs. We also partner with the strategic communications teams in
several ministries and advise them on how to utilize research findings in their
work. Our last poll on foreign policy, and particularly the differences in
perceptions between Armenian and Azerbaijani settlements, is being used to
identify specific targets and messages for their European and Euro Atlantic
communication strategy. NGOs have relied on our data to strengthen their
advocacy efforts. So, we do indeed have many folks using our research, which is
our aim in order to ensure more responsive policy-making.
AK: That's excellent. Now let me ask, what was most surprising in your
latest report results, from your personal standpoint? Or was everything predictable?
It was hard to learn that half of Georgians report not being able to pay their utilities bill at some point over the past six months.
LT: There are so many interesting
and surprising findings in the research, and as you dig further and do more
analysis, new discoveries emerge. It was hard to learn that half of Georgians report not being able to pay their utilities bill at some point over the past six months. Or that a majority could not come up with 300 GEL (without
interest) if they urgently needed it. That really was a stark reminder of the
hardship facing many people in this country. I thought it was useful to look at
the cross tabs on the economy by age and gender. For instance, women and older
people will accept a far lower salary than younger people and men. Also, the
younger age group is slightly less likely to say their parents’ generation was
better off than theirs. But if you think about it, their parents were coming of
age in the 1990s, so not that surprising. I also thought it was interesting
that minority settlements are more likely to save money, and report having more
of a personal safety net as a result.
It’s also revealing to look
at the data by party supporters. Normally, this is not so surprising, with
Georgian Dream supporters viewing things more positively than others. I found
it interesting, though, that on economic ideology, we actually saw slight
contrast – United National Movement (UNM) supporters lean a bit more
economically liberal than GD supporters. Although this could be in part driven
by a reflection of overall trust in government.
Georgians indicate that they are un-impressed with their political options and while planning to vote, have no idea for whom.
AK: Majority
of Georgians evaluates the current government’s performance as “bad”.
However, they have voted to support the ruling party. And Georgian public
neither tends to support other parties. Is the public generally reluctant,
unwilling to change, or losing the hope?
LT: I have been asked this a lot
over the past few days. And I cannot say I have an answer. If I flew into
another country and was shown the data that a majority of folks feel the
country is going in the wrong direction, the economy is terrible, and the
government’s performance is bad, I would think that government was in trouble
in the next year’s election. However, in Georgia, you will notice that this
does not translate into support for any of the opposition parties in a serious
way. Or at least not yet. Just because folks are not pleased with the current
government does not mean they may not dislike the opposition options even more. And, as you said, going into the last few
elections, GD support was not high and people were not particularly pleased
with the government’s performance, but they still won.
We recently conducted focus
groups on this – what do Georgians think of political parties, what are they
looking for in a party, how do they make a determination on election day, etc.
While this research is qualitative – and thus not statistically representative
– the picture was that a lot of people did not like any of their options and
voted for what they perceived as the “lesser of evils.” This is consistent with
the poll and voting data, which show lots of undecideds before elections, but
then it appears those undecideds pull the lever for the ruling party. What is
interesting to me is that Georgians report they would like “alternatives,” yet
they don’t vote for them. There are many parties in Georgia – with different
ideologies and backgrounds – but voters still mainly vote for either GD or UNM,
perhaps this is strategic, a fear of “throwing one’s vote away” and
inadvertently getting their least favorite party elected.
Several politicians have
explained to me there is a desire in Georgia to vote for strength, for winners,
making it difficult for new parties to emerge. Further, they say, the two
leading parties have successfully sucked up all the oxygen and media coverage,
shaping any campaign into a two-way contest. The playing field isn’t exactly even in Georgia, with GD having the lion’s share of resources, which also makes it hard for other parties to get their voices heard. It is also important to
keep in mind, as everywhere, incumbents are usually at an advantage and the
status quo is often considered the safer choice, particularly in a country
where much of the employed population is employed by the state, so there is a
desire not to “rock the boat.”
The playing field isn’t exactly even in Georgia, with GD having the lion’s share of resources, which makes it hard for other parties to get their voices heard.
However, it is also important
to keep in mind how Georgia’s electoral system can impact outcomes. Under the majoritarian system, as you know
well, GD got just shy of 50% of the vote, but that translated into a
constitutional majority in the parliament. With the fully proportional system,
we are likely to see different outcomes in 2020.
AK: The social and economic agenda is the most important for the public -
your top issues remain the same since 2009. But now, the Lari depreciation
curve visibly correlates with your "Country direction" curve, and
it's one of most "spectacular" findings of your latest poll (see
graph below). Would you like to comment on it?
LT: Yes – and it is a correlation
that CRRC tested statistically. It is likely that people perceive the value of
the Lari as an indication of the health of the economy – correctly or
incorrectly – and they also associate it with rising prices and, hence, their
economic well-being. Though reports show that inflation in Georgia is not, in
fact, high, we see that Georgians perceive that things are more expensive. It
is indeed true that many Georgians have debt and property in dollars, or
purchase imported products, so this does indeed impact them greatly. While it
certainly makes sense that there is this correlation, to see it on a graph
fitting so remarkably in sync is remarkable.
AK: If
you compare the public sentiments to situation several years ago - when
you started your polling perhaps - what's the most drastic change?
LT: If you look at NDI’s
institutional performance charts over time, the increasing negative evaluation
of the courts and parliament since 2012 is jarring indeed, although not
drastic. I am always interested in looking at the internet usage figures and
how they just continue to tick upwards.
AK: Democracy
in Georgia: Do you feel it is declining, stays the same, or getting stronger?
Can you compare it to democracy level in the neighboring countries
- for example, the recent rise in democracy level in Armenia,
perhaps?
LT: I think we have a democracy
problem everywhere and it
certainly is a rough time to be in the democracy-promotion business. Made
harder when your own country is grappling with the same problems – establishing
electoral systems that deliver one person-one vote, foreign interference,
disinformation campaigns, lack of parliamentary oversight, money in politics --
you are trying to solve elsewhere. Georgia
is facing similar challenges we are seeing across the globe – a rise of
far-right, xenophobic movements, a political elite and governing system that
fails to deliver to citizens, political apathy coupled with vehement
polarization, threats to information integrity, and security challenges. Not to
sound too gloomy, but I think we have a lot of work to do. My ideas on that are
for another interview!
AK: Agreed
– that’s always a most interesting subject for Caucasian Journal. My next question is
about the Georgian church. It appears to be almost the only public
institution that preserves a stable favourable evaluation. How do you assess
this tendency? Is it Georgia's specifics? It would be interesting to
know how does that correlate to situation in the other countries.
LT: It is high in Georgia, when
comparing to other countries. Pew and CRRC and a few researchers do have
regional and global results. And, from other polls I have seen, Georgians do
consider themselves quite religious and place great importance on religion.
AK: Shall
we touch upon some concrete findings of your polls? For example, the absence of
savings in most Georgian families. Is this a new development? Are Georgians
becoming a poorer nation, and how quickly?
LT: This is our most extensive
polling on savings, so I do not have a lot of historical data, but our regular
poll question on household income and spending has consistently shown that
Georgians report spending all that they earn. I’m not sure how this compares to
neighboring countries. Some have explained to me this is a cultural tendency,
and there simply isn’t a priority placed on saving. Others have described it as
a post-Soviet legacy and a reliance on the state to take care of you. And then
there is also the very real possibility that saving is simply a luxury, and people
cannot make ends meet, let alone put money away.
AK: Very
few Georgians - less than 1 percent - believe in Georgia's IT and other
technological assets. For a 21-century economy, this appears as a rather
saddening finding. Is there anything that can be done to improve this tendency,
in your view?
LT: Well, I think people answer
with what they know and currently do – farming, tourism, etc. There is not
(yet) a booming tech sector, so it is probably hard for people to envision
that.
AK: According
to your polls, Georgians are generally satisfied with the quality of
healthcare, which appears to be a very positive result. But still, more than
half of people would prefer to be treated abroad. Sounds
paradoxical, doesn't it?
LT: Yes, these were very positive
findings. Georgians believe the quality of healthcare is good, trust their
doctors and clinics, report that healthcare facilities are accessible, and say
they are treated with respect. And it is clear that universal healthcare is
valued and appreciated. The question about treatment abroad was specifically
related to complicated procedures. It
is difficult in a small country to have specialized, niche expertise in the
full array of medical interventions.
AK: Finally,
I wanted to touch upon the foreign policy issues. Though many Georgians believe
that the country is moving in the wrong direction, this does not include
the foreign policy orientation. Your "Foreign
Policy" poll section shows a remarkable stability of all the
attitudes. This happens despite the lack of visible progress in
further integration with EU/NATO. How would you comment?
LT: Georgians have a clear vision
of what they want and how they position Georgia on the world stage, with
western orientation and as a part of Europe. I would like to interpret this
commitment, despite the lack of significant progress, like you said, as an
understanding of broader principles. The process of joining the EU, for
example, includes measures that are good
for Georgia, membership or not. Consumer protections, for example, protect
us and our children, make us safer. NATO partnerships, including the trainings
and technical assistance, make Georgia more secure. But it is also a
psychological state of mind, isn’t it? It is a statement of the values and ideals
Georgians want for their country – a free, prosperous, secure democracy.
AK: Thank
you very much. You are welcome to talk to the readers of Caucasian
Journal anytime.
LT: Thank you. It is always a
pleasure!
Read the Georgian translation here.
This article was re-published by:
- ICC Georgia republished Caucasian Journal's interview with Laura Thornton of NDI Georgia in its newsletter. Laura Thornton's interview is on pages 5-10.
NEW:
Read the Georgian translation here.
This article was re-published by:
- ICC Georgia republished Caucasian Journal's interview with Laura Thornton of NDI Georgia in its newsletter. Laura Thornton's interview is on pages 5-10.
NEW:
1 post
ReplyDeleteIf most people think the country is going in the right direction, you are probably living in a country with no democracy, human rights or there is extreme poverty.
The countries that report the highest number of citizens who think their country is going in the right direction are China, Saudi Arabia and India.
The fact a small majority in Georgia think our direction is wrong mirrors all EU countries who express the same about their countries.
It is correlated to the growth of democracy in Georgia since 2012. There is now a free press, unrestricted access to social media and Georgians are no longer scared of retrubution if they criticise the Government or politicia