13.08.2025 (Caucasian Journal) The recent breakthrough agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, brokered with the assistance of the U.S. President, which establishes the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP)"—also known unofficially as the Zangezur Corridor— has prompted a range of mixed reactions.
In Georgia, the deal has caused a particular divide. While political rivals like current Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and former President Salome Zourabichvili have found a rare moment of unity in welcoming the development, former President Mikheil Saakashvili has called it "the most serious geopolitical catastrophe for Georgia."
Today, the Caucasian Journal is presenting the opinions of international experts. We reached out to them to answer the following two questions:
▶ What are the likely long-term political and economic consequences of this agreement for Georgia?
▶ With a renewed and visible U.S. diplomatic presence in the region, do you believe the South Caucasus will ultimately benefit from this changed geopolitical situation both in the region and beyond?
Fady ASLY, Chairman, International Chamber of Commerce in Georgia (ICC Georgia):
Already several years ago I posted on Facebook saying that this would be a terrible threat for Georgia, because already when Azerbaijan recovered the territories and started speaking of a corridor that will go from Azerbaijan directly through the border with Armenia to Turkey. So, this was obviously terrible economic news for Georgia, because the only competitive advantage Georgia has is that it serves as an entry gate to the Caucasus and Central Asia. Whether it is the Poti port, the Batumi port, or the Anaklia port, all were developed with this idea in mind. Now this new corridor from Azerbaijan to Turkey being in the pipeline deprives Georgia of a very strong economic and transit card in its hand and will weaken the position of any Georgian government in any negotiation regarding any issue, because Georgia would be losing.
So, this is a catastrophe, definitely - not a catastrophe per se, but it's very bad news and it will weaken Georgia greatly, economically and geopolitically.
Regarding the second question, it's very difficult to anticipate what could happen because the Caucasus is pretty small and Russia can strangle any transit that would go to Armenia from Georgia and from Armenia to Russia as well. So I don't think that this can be considered a victory of the West geopolitically because Russia still has a lot of power of destabilization. It is easier to destabilize than to stabilize, and the Russians will do everything in their power to keep their influence in the Caucasus.
"This new corridor from Azerbaijan to Turkey deprives Georgia of a very strong economic and transit card in its hand... So, this is a catastrophe, very bad news, and it will weaken Georgia greatly, economically and geopolitically.
But definitely, having two countries of the Caucasus aligning with the United States gives Azerbaijan and Armenia some more leverage, since they are two countries, unlike when Georgia was alone opening its doors to the West and extending its arm to the West. Azerbaijan and Armenia were at that time really playing in Russia's backyard. So it is difficult to forecast what can happen, and I believe that it is very much linked to a solution in Ukraine, and how the solution will happen. Will there be a trade-off where Russia will let Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia go, against keeping the occupied territories in Ukraine, or not?
Definitely, Russia will play the Caucasus card in the negotiations regarding a settlement in Ukraine. But the situation is pretty dangerous because it's very volatile, and we still don't know how it can turn. And also let's keep in mind that this agreement in Washington between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not a peace deal - it is a kind of peace roadmap. It's not cast in iron, and we will have to wait and see what can happen.
Lukas BEGLINGER, former Ambassador of Switzerland to Georgia:
A lasting peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan and a subsequent normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations would clearly reduce Russia‘s political and economic influence in the South Caucasus and offer new opportunities for trade and economic development in the region and beyond. Whilst such a major stimulus towards diversified political and economic ties is fundamentally also in Georgia‘s interest, the latter’s geopolitical position as a critical corridor between East and West might be weakened - depending on its future strategic orientation and policies.
Both the US and Europe have an interest to support the political and economic emancipation of post-Soviet countries in the region; without doubt, such emancipation will be even more beneficial for the countries concerned.
Alkis Vryenios DRAKINOS, Director and Regional Head of the Caucasus for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD):
I warmly welcome the prospect of a lasting, resilient, and permanent peace settlement among Armenia and Azerbaijan. Once achieved—bearing in mind that several important milestones remain before a fully signed peace deal and the establishment of a trusting relationship among the two countries—the populations of Armenia and Azerbaijan will benefit from the opening of regional trade opportunities, as well as new transport and energy routes that reflect the potential of the Caucasus region, including its role as a bridge linking Europe with Central and East Asia.
In this context, I also see opportunities for Georgia. The post-peace deal potential growth in trade between Europe and Central & East Asia via the Caucasus, along with improved intraregional exchanges, could be a decisive catalyst—boosting the bankability of major energy and transport infrastructure projects across all three Caucasus countries. The EBRD has long expressed readiness to consider Middle Corridor projects in support of Caucasus countries energy, transport and digital connectivity, and private sector development.
Tedo JAPARIDZE, former Secretary of the National Security Council, Minister of Foreign Affairs and chairman of the parliamentary Committee for Foreign Affairs of Georgia:
Any agreement that will strengthen peace, stability, security, and perspectives of economic cooperation is supposed to be beneficial for Georgia if Georgia itself is stable and predictable for its partners in the immediate neighborhood and far beyond it.
I cannot believe but just only hope that the South Caucasus, Georgia as its essential component, will benefit from a renewed and refreshed engagement of the United States in the region. Again, Georgia will benefit if it overcomes its internal squabbles and imbalances.
"Georgia will benefit if it overcomes its internal squabbles and imbalances".
Tracey GERMAN, Professor in Conflict and Security, King’s College London | Defence Academy
An increased US influence and presence in the South Caucasus, particularly if the so-called Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity comes off, raises the danger of further isolation for Georgia. Tbilisi has increasingly aligned itself with Moscow and Ankara (as well as Beijing), isolating itself from the political West. It has been hoping to benefit from the Middle Corridor – Georgian President Mikheil Kavelashvili has been in Türkiye in recent days reaffirming the strategic partnership between the two and emphasising the importance of the Middle Corridor and key infrastructure projects for regional cooperation (timing of this coincidence?). If the agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan leads to genuine change (and it is a big if, as the agreement signed last week contains more aspiration than substantive change), it could lead to a significant reconfiguration of geopolitics in the Caucasus, which would influence the trajectory of Georgia’s domestic and foreign policy developments for the foreseeable future.
"An increased US influence and presence in the South Caucasus, particularly if the so-called Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity comes off, raises the danger of further isolation for Georgia".
If US presence and influence increase, this will upset the regional powers of Russia and Iran. It could be a significant benefit if it leads to long-term, sustainable peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, ending Armenia’s regional isolation. However, if it triggers increased geopolitical competition between the US, Russia, and Iran for influence, this could ultimately undermine security across the wider region. Shifting geopolitical realities across the region have already been intensified by Russia’s war in Ukraine, leading to a rise in the influence and engagement of Türkiye, China and Iran, as well as the EU, threatening Russia’s hitherto dominant position.
Dr. Ekaterine METREVELI, President of Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies (Rondeli Foundation)
The joint declaration signed in Washington, D.C., between President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia — facilitated by President Donald Trump — marks a turning point in the region’s history. It not only sets the stage for a peace agreement but also signals deeper U.S. involvement in developing transit routes, including a corridor connecting Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan. Calling this event “historic” is no exaggeration.
This agreement opens a new chapter for the South Caucasus, one that could reshape both its immediate security environment and long-term geopolitical trajectory. In the short run, it reduces the risk of renewed conflict. In the long run, it strengthens the U.S. role in a region where Russia has traditionally held sway.
The most consequential outcome is the shift in the guarantor role for security and economic cooperation between Azerbaijan and Armenia — from Russia to the United States. For decades, Moscow was the primary mediator in post-Soviet conflicts, often using them as leverage over both sides. Now, with Russia’s influence waning, the U.S. has stepped into the vacuum. The planned Zangezur Corridor — already dubbed the “Trump Corridor” — will be controlled by American authorities, not Russia’s FSB, signaling a major geopolitical change.
This shift also sidelines Iran, another former imperial player in the region. Tehran benefited from the previous status quo, acting as a transit route for Azerbaijan and an economic partner for Armenia. The new arrangement, which opens direct links between Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Turkey, bypasses Iran entirely. Moreover, increased Western — and especially U.S. — presence in the region runs counter to Iranian strategic interests.
Over time, Armenia’s membership in Russian-led structures like the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union may lose relevance, potentially paving the way for a gradual withdrawal. While Russia still has tools to destabilize both Armenia and Azerbaijan, its capacity to dictate the regional agenda is shrinking. Attempts to strike Azerbaijani-linked infrastructure, even in far-off theatres like Ukraine, reflect the desperation of a weakening power.
A Strategic Opening for Georgia
For Georgia, the agreement brings clear advantages. A stronger U.S. role in the South Caucasus serves its national security interests far more than relying solely on its current position as the main transit route in the region. Since regaining independence, Georgia’s greatest national security threat has been Russian aggression and interference impeding its sovereignty. Any development that weakens Moscow’s influence — especially in its immediate neighborhood — is a strategic gain for Tbilisi.
Dr. Nestan TSITSISHVILI, Dean, School of Social Sciences, Georgian Institute of Public Affairs (GIPA)
The historic deal signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan in DC with the active participation of the US President, Donald Trump, is extremely important in terms of peace, stability, security, economic, and infrastructure cooperation in the South Caucasus region.
What are the political and economic consequences of this agreement for Georgia - no doubt that peace and security in the region are crucial for Georgia and its development.
On the other hand, according to the US administration's arguments (based on the complicated relations between the Georgian government and the US), it's necessary to create a new political base in the South Caucasus, and this agreement is one of the proofs of this. Politically, in my view, it’s decreasing Georgia's presence in the region. Hope Georgia will be able to regain its political position in the near future.
Regarding economic issues - at a glance it seems that Georgia may lose its transit revenues, but in case of Will, and if managed smartly, Georgia can benefit from the new corridor by turning it into a complementary route. In addition to this, Azerbaijan's oil and gas have been passing through Georgia to the world markets for years; huge amounts of money have been invested in Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku–Tbilisi–Erzurum, and this route will continue.
In my view US diplomatic presence in the South Caucasus region will be extremely important in many cases: peace, security, and stability; economic and infrastructure investments;
On the other hand, it will be crucial for the US to take into account the national interests of the South Caucasus countries alongside their characteristics and peculiarities.
The best scenario for me - South Caucasus countries working with the US and EU to keep peace and stability, develop economic corridors, increase revenues, support democratic reforms, etc.
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